Graphic Packaging Holding’s third quarter saw revenue and non-GAAP profit ahead of Wall Street expectations, which contributed to the positive market reaction. Management pointed to continued cost reductions, progress in inventory management, and early benefits from the new Waco recycled paperboard facility as important drivers. CEO Michael Doss highlighted that, despite consumer weakness and competitive pricing in the packaging market, the company’s innovation pipeline and operational execution allowed it to outperform many peers. Doss stated, “Our innovation platform continues to open up new markets for paperboard packaging, once again allowing us to outperform the broader markets we serve.”
Is now the time to buy GPK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.19 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.16 billion (1.2% year-on-year decline, 1.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.58 vs analyst estimates of $0.57 (1.9% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $399 million vs analyst estimates of $386.7 million (18.2% margin, 3.2% beat)
- The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $8.5 billion at the midpoint
- Management lowered its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $1.90 at the midpoint, a 7.3% decrease
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $1.43 billion at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $1.45 billion
- Operating Margin: 10.7%, down from 12.5% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes fell 2% year on year, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $4.76 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Graphic Packaging Holding’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Ghansham Panjabi (Baird): Asked if market share was lost due to competitive pricing. CEO Michael Doss clarified, “there was no share loss for us,” attributing results to customer purchasing patterns and innovation-driven outperformance.
- George Staphos (BofA): Questioned the necessity of additional cost reductions to achieve Waco’s $80 million contribution. Doss responded that while cost review continues, confidence in capturing the full benefit is high due to the facility’s ramp and operational levers.
- Matthew Roberts (Raymond James): Sought clarity on how long competitive pricing pressure would persist and its impact on product mix. Doss explained that substitution of lower-cost recycled board is preferred and that the current pricing environment is viewed as unsustainable for competitors.
- Charlie Muir-Sands (BNP): Inquired about the phasing of Waco’s start-up costs and price premiums for premium recycled products. Doss outlined most start-up costs occur this year, with Rainier premium CRB used to defend share, albeit at lower pricing.
- Gabe Hajde (Wells Fargo): Asked about working capital management and the drivers of next year’s free cash flow inflection. CFO Charles Lischer pointed to reduced capex, lower inventory, and stable receivables as key factors.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our analysts will be watching (1) the operational ramp and cost realization at the Waco facility, (2) the effectiveness of ongoing cost reduction initiatives in defending margins, and (3) the pace of adoption for new innovation-driven packaging solutions in both food and non-food markets. Emerging trends in private label growth and competitive pricing behavior will also be important to track.
Graphic Packaging Holding currently trades at $16.13, up from $15.65 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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